Saturday, July 27, 2013

New Horizons Mission Update and Science Conference 7/26/13

 

plutostamp

 

Mission Elapsed Time:

(1/19/06 19:00:00 UTC)
1538 Days (4.21 yrs.) 21 Hours 03 Minutes

Pluto Closest Encounter Operations Begin:
(4/12/15 00:00:00)
632 Days (1.73 yrs.)  20 Hours 34 Minutes

Pluto Closest Approach:
(7/14/15 11:49:59)
717 Days (1.96 yrs.) 08 Hours 24 Minutes

 

Charon Revealed!
New Horizons Camera Spots Pluto’s Largest Moon:

NASA’s Pluto-bound New Horizons spacecraft, using its highest-resolution telescopic camera, has spotted Pluto’s Texas-sized, ice-covered moon Charon for the first time. This represents a major milestone on the spacecraft’s 9½-year journey to conduct the initial reconnaissance of the Pluto system and the Kuiper Belt and, in a sense, begins the mission’s long-range study of the Pluto system.

Pluto and Charon 2

For Photo :Pluto and Charon: New Horizons Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) composite image showing the detection of Pluto’s largest moon, Charon, cleanly separated from Pluto itself. The frame on the left is an average of six different LORRI images, each taken with an exposure time of 0.1 second. The frame to the right is the same composite image but with Pluto and Charon circled; Pluto is the brighter object near the center and Charon is the fainter object near its 11 o’clock position. The circles also denote the predicted locations of the objects, showing that Charon is where the team expects it to be, relative to Pluto. No other Pluto system objects are seen in these images.

The largest of Pluto’s five known moons, Charon orbits about 12,000 miles (more than 19,000 kilometers) away from Pluto itself. As seen from New Horizons, that’s only about 0.01 degrees away. “The image itself might not look very impressive to the untrained eye, but compared to the discovery images of Charon from Earth, these ‘discovery’ images from New Horizons look great!” says New Horizons Project Scientist Hal Weaver, of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Md. “We’re very excited to see Pluto and Charon as separate objects for the first time from New Horizons.”   The spacecraft was still 550 million miles from Pluto – farther than the distance from Earth to Jupiter – when its Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) snapped a total of six images: three on July 1 and three more on July 3. LORRI’s excellent sensitivity and spatial resolution revealed Charon at exactly the predicted offset from Pluto, 35 years after the announcement of Charon’s discovery in 1978 by James Christy of the Naval Observatory.


New Horizons Course and Position in Three Dimensions:

#1

NH #1

#2

NH #2

#3

 

NH #3

 

Pluto Science Conference:
July 22-26, 2013

 

Just two years before New Horizons’ historic flight through the Pluto system, scientists are gathered July 22-26 at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Md., to discuss the mission and its science plans – as well as make predictions about the science New Horizons will return from the planetary frontier.    By the 1990s, it became clear that Pluto possessed multiple exotic ices on its surface, a complex atmosphere and seasonal cycles, and a large moon suggesting a giant impact origin for the pair. Also in the 1990s it became clear that Pluto was no misfit among the planets, as had long been thought; instead, it was revealed to be the largest and brightest body in the Kuiper Belt—a newly discovered “third zone” of our planetary system. More recently, observations have revealed that Pluto has an unexpectedly rich system of satellites and a surface that changes over time. It has even been speculated that Pluto may possess an internal ocean. For these and other reasons, the 2003 Planetary Decadal Survey ranked a Pluto Kuiper Belt mission as the highest priority mission for NASA’s newly created New Frontiers program.  New Horizons is now 70% of the way along its journey to the Pluto system. It carries a sophisticated package with eight scientific instruments comprised of imagers, UV and IR spectrographs, plasma analyzers, a dust counter, and radio science. This payload was designed to reconnoiter the surfaces, atmospheres, interiors, and space environments of Pluto and its rich system of satellites, shedding light on the abundant new planetary class called ice dwarfs.


Comparative Compositions of Pluto and friends, even long-distant friends :

Bill McKinnon (Washington University)  provided an engaging talk about implications for composition and structure for Pluto and Charon:
Where did Pluto Accrete (i.e. where was Pluto born -in this case distance from the Sun)? Pluto is not alone in its location on that a/e plot for Trans-Neptunian Objects (see previous posting). It’s part of an ensemble of bodies on the 2:3 resonance with Neptune, coined the group “Plutinos.” Was Pluto formed around 33 AU and then migrated outward? What does the Nice I Model  which migrates the giant planets predict for the KBO population? The Nice I Model implies that for Pluto, Pluto could have formed at 20-29 AU (i.e. closer in) to allow it to achieve its high inclination. Then a subsequent model, Nice II, suggests Pluto may have formed in the 15-34 AU range. This is in okay-agreement with accretion models since Pluto, a 1000-km size body, would need 5-10 million years (i.e. within a nebular life) if it were formed in the 20-25 AU range. McKinnon’s Best guess: Pluto formed between 15-30 AU.

How long did accretion take and what are the implications (i.e. how-long did it take for to Pluto grow up)? If we have an accretion time (10’s of million years), there is time enough to form Aluminum-26, which is a form of heat through its decay. Heat then can melt ices and create a differentiated body (i.e., rocky core, icy mantle) and also drive water out. McKinnon’s Best guess: Pluto formed rapid and early.  What are Pluto & Charon made of? They are understood to be made of rock+metal, volatile ices, and organics, with rock+metal more than ice, and ice more than organics. The rock will be some combination of hydrated & anhydrous silicates, sulfides, oxides, carbonates, condrules, CAIs (calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions), CHONPS (carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur). We don’t really know what sort of composition these KBO volatile ices may have: will they be more like Jupiter Family Comets or Oort Comets? And we know even less about organic components: will the Nitrogen to Carbon ratio tell us whether KBO N2 (nitrogen) comes from organics rather than NH3 (methane)? Solar models (which lock up CO (carbon-monoxide) into carbon) can influence understanding of what rocks in the outer solar system are made of but their models are not in agreement with the best understanding of Pluto/Charon make-up. McKinnon’s Best guess: Rock/Ice nature of Pluto-Charon is 70/30.

Luke Burkhart (Johns Hopkins University) talked about his work on a “Non-linear satellite search around Haumea.” Haumea is another Trans-Neptunian Object (TNO) that has multiple satellite companion, like Pluto. Using HST (10 orbits) they observed the Haumea system and used a method of stacking & shifting to identify satellites. But this method fails to capture objects which are close in, moving fast, and on highly curved orbits. So they developed a new method using a non-linear shift-rate. Their approach, when applied to the Haumea system, had a null-result. However, this approach could be used on images of the Pluto system and other TNOs. Specifically, in answer to a question from the audience, Luke would be eager to use his technique on any of those long-range KBO targets the New Horizons project is currently investigating.

NH TNOs

Photo here Family portraits of the eight largest Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs). Pluto is shown with its 5 companions.

 

Small is the new big. Pluto’s family of small satellites sparks big discussions and new ideas.

Hal Weaver (APL) gave an introduction to “Pluto’s Small Satellites.” The Pluto system is rich. It has five confirmed moons, Charon (1978), Nix (2005), Hydra (2005), Kerberos (2011, formerly know as P4) and Styx (2012, formerly known as P5).

pluto_satellite_specs-1024x738

The Pluto system at a glance. Key top-level parameters of the satellites a=semi major axis (from the Pluto-Charon barycenter/center of mass) in kilometers, P=orbital period in days. The moons appear to be in orbital resonances Hydra:Kerberos:Nix:Styx:Charon = 6:5:4:3:1.


What about their albedo? Albedo is a measurement of a body’s reflectance, a reflection coefficient, where an albedo equal to 1 is “white” and an albedo equal to 0 is essentially “black” (e.g., dirty snowballs like comet nuclei has albedos ~0.04). It should be noted that albedo values can be functions of color (wavelength of light). We know that Pluto has an albedo ~0.5 and Charon has albedo ~0.35. Regolith exchange and dynamics agreements favor albedo ~0.35 for these small satellites, and assuming that density=1 (icy body).  What are implications of these small satellite discoveries? These questions were posed: (1) Pluto system is highly compact and rich, so are there more satellites not yet discovered? (2) Was there a giant impact origin of Pluto System? (3) Could rings also form? (4) Could other large KBOs have multiple satellites? (We know Haumea has 2 companions. Could there be others?).  What role will New Horizons bring? New Horizons will play a key role for small satellites, measuring their size and their shapes. Note: Additional occultation observations from Earth could reveal additional satellites and also provide measurements of their sizes, but not shapes.  New Horizons best spatial resolution of the small satellites is: 0.46 km/pix (Nix), 1.14 km/pix (Hydra), 3.2km/pix (Kerberos), and 3.2 km/pix (Styx). Best estimates right now for the sizes of these bodies, assuming albedo 0.35, are Hydra 50km, Nix 40km, Kerberos 10km, Styx 4 km. That translates to roughly ~44, ~37, ~3, and ~1 pixels across Hydra, Nix, Kerberos, and Styx, respectively.

Scott Kenyon (Harvard SAO, by phone):  “Formation of Pluto’s Low Mass Satellites.” He and his team looked at both the giant impact and capture formation paths for Pluto and Charon. They model a debris disk where viscous diffusion expands the disk, collisions circularize the orbits, particles experience migration, and satellites eventually grow. They found that lower mask disks take longer to reach equilibrium, do produce more satellites, and also produce the smaller satellites. Calculations with large seed planetesimals produce less satellites. Calculations also do predict 1-km size objects in large orbits (orbits beyond Hydra) in a diffuse debris disk.

NH predicted size of pluto system

 

Peter Thomas (Cornell University) and Keith Noll (NASA GSFC) provided a talk about “Pluto’s Small Satellites: What to Expect, What They Might Tell Us.:”

Small satellites of planets: variety and dynamics role. We have a small selection of satellites of 20-100km range (e.g. Metis, Amalthea, Thebe, Atlas, Prometheus, Pandora, Epimetheus, Janus, Hyperion, Phoebe and asteroids Mathilde, Eros, Ida). Best “comparatives” come from the Saturn family from amazing Cassini images, but these divided into two groups whether they are located within the ring arcs or not. Small satellites are irregular in shape, have high porosity (40-70% void space), weak (tidally fractured), crater morphology varies, regolith depths & distribution over surface, icy & rocky, and some have albedo markings.

Pluto moon simularity with saturn_family-1024x751

Saturn’s moons may be useful “comparatives” for describing Pluto’s small satellites.

Predictions for New Horizons. Peter Thomas is excited to see New Horizons’ images of the small satellites. He predicts they will not look like egg-shaped. Thomas’ Best Guess: A Deimos/Hyperion hybrid morphology.  KBOs and their satellites: variety and collision role. There are three multiple systems known in the Kuiper Belt: Pluto (6 components), Haumea (3 components) and 47171 1999 Tc36 (3 components). There are also 74 binary systems to date. The Pluto system is collisional. Unfortunately most of the KBO binaries have too low angular momentum to imply a collisional origin, but there is a subset of TNO binaries that could be a comparative set. Multiple collision systems in the Kuiper Belt could serve as possible analogs of the Pluto system.

Plutino binaries (above) are also “comparatives” images for describing Pluto’s small satellites. Other comparative bodies, which may have collisional origin could be Quaoar, 1998 SM165, Salacia, and Eris.

Predictions for New Horizons. New Horizons will tell us a lot about KBOs and test open theories about their formation and collisional history.

Mark Showalter (SETI): Talked about his preliminary work on “Chaotic Rotation of Nix & Hydra.” He started the presentation with a light curves for Hydra & Nix made the 2010-2012 HST data sets. They do not follow the expected “double sinusoidal.” When plotting phase angle vs. time, Hydra and Nix do get brighter with lower phase angle and he used this information to normalize their light curves. He found that Nix & Hydra’s brightness's do not correlate with their projected longitude on the sky. They are probably not in synchronous rotation. Also, he is not finding any single rotation period compatible with the data series he has.  His premise is that Nix and Hydra are not following your typical rotation, and are very heavily influenced by the Charon-wobble. Best Guess: Hydra and Nix are in a state of “tumbling.” Bodies that not synchronous have no way to get to synchronous lock.  Until now, Hyperion (one of Saturn’s moons) had been the only chaotic rotator. Not any more! It’s got company!

More predictions about Pluto’s changing atmosphere. And Charon may have a few surprises of her own.


Richard French (Wellesley College): presented a talk on “A Comparison of Models of Tides in Pluto’s Atmosphere and Stellar Occultation Observations:”   We have come to understand that Pluto’s atmosphere is cold & tenuous, has a long radiative time constant, shows weak diurnal variations, indicates seasonal transport of volatiles with long term variations of atmospheric mass, and seems to be convectively stable. Current Pluto general circulation models (GCMs) predict smooth T(P) profiles reveal mean circulation and thermal structure. But there are problems. GCMs predictions (with these smooth T(P) profiles) are inconsistent with stellar occultation data, which imply much more complex T(P) profile. The other challenge to this mystery is that stellar occultations are spatial constrained (i.e., map across a particular lat/long swath of Pluto surface at the time of event). Are there waves in Pluto’s atmosphere? This is one proposition to explain the structures (spikes) seen in the Pluto occultation data. Tidal models they have built make predictions for large scale and small-scale structures. Also they can predict temperature profiles with altitude. Next steps are to apply this model to other occultation geometries. He showed a comparison of a tidal model  against occultation data from an event on Aug 21, 2002 and they showed qualitative agreement. Richard French’s predictions for New Horizons fly-by: When New Horizons provides a true frost pattern, they can input this into their models and generate large-scale and small-scale structures for comparison with actual New Horizons atmosphere measurements. Their tidal models do generate regionally variable, latitude dependent thermal changes.

pluto_charon_double_occ_20111-1024x780

There was a dual Pluto & Charon occultation event on 4 June 2011. Pluto and Charon each pass in front of the star (at different times). Look at curve shapes. Charon’s curve sharply drops, indicative of no atmosphere, unlike Pluto’s curve, which has not-as-steep ingress/egress that indicates the presence of an atmosphere.

Using the light curve data, Sicardy and his team use a temperature vs. altitude model to fit the light curve depth, width and ingress/egress slope. Then with the temperature, they can derive a pressure. He presented results from the most recent Pluto occultation that was observed May 4, 2013. Good data and good fit.

 

Pluto, the Orange Frosty, served with a dash of Nitrogen, a pinch of Methane, and smidgen of Carbon Monoxide

Dale Cruikshank (NASA Ames) set the stage with a spectra-rich presentation and gave an overview talk about the “Surface Compositions of Pluto and Charon.” Putting it in context, even 45 years after Pluto was discovered, we did not know much about Pluto only where it was in the sky and its rotation period. That rapidly changed when Dale and colleagues saw strong evidence for solid methane on Pluto in 1976.  Jim Christy discovered the companion moon Charon in 1978, and repeated observations of Pluto and Charon in the 1980s.  Spectroscopy, the technique which spreads light into different wavelengths, has been a powerful diagnostic tool for the identification of molecular species, and therefore tells us the composition of the object. Low-resolution (R~100-500) spectra is sufficient to identify ice-solid features which are characterized by wide features, but higher resolution (R~1,000-10,000s) helps constrain models that determine temperature  also. New Horizons’ LEISA spectrometer covers the 1.25-2.5micron spectral band, with resolution R~240, and a mode of R~550 between 2.10-2.25 microns, making it ideal for identifying solid features. It’s proximity to Pluto during the July 2015 fly-by provides unprecedented spatial resolution. Compared to ground-based & Hubble spectral measurements which can only provide full-disk (~1500km/pix) measurements (because Pluto appears only in a few pixels), New Horizons’ LEISA will provide the true “first look” at the composition of Pluto at 6.0km/pix (global) with some patches at 2.7 km/pixel.

pluto_triton_nir-1024x685reflection and composition

Pluto’s Near Infrared Spectrum is rich in identifiable diagnostic solid materials, Nitrogen (N2), Methane (CH4) and Carbon Monoxide (CO). A comparison with Triton’s spectrum over the same wavelength is shown. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is suspiciously absent from Pluto’s atmosphere.

pluto_mir_spectrum-1024x764

Pluto’s mid-infrared show a series of methane bands. The gap at 4.2 um is due to CO2 absorption from the Earth’s atmosphere.

Pluto’s UV Spectrum from HST also indirectly supports the presence of organics.

pluto_red_color-1024x797

Geometric albedo (measure of reflectivity) of Pluto as a function of wavelength. See how red it looks?

The Surface of Charon. Charon has an intriguing different kind of surface than Pluto. There is water ice, perhaps crystalline ice, and ammonia (NH3) hydrate. But there are no CO, CO2, N2 or CH4, all which are present (or predicted) for Pluto. The nature and source of the ammonia is under debate. Could it come from below the surface and diffuse up or come from cryo-volcanism?

charon_surface

 

Predictions for New Horizons. It will be hard to find HCN with LEISA due to its spectral resolution as there is a strong methane band nearby. Dale Cruikshank thinks it will be challenging as well to find alkenes.  The mystery of the missing CO2 on Pluto remains. Carbon dioxide is seen on Triton (see above), whose spectra is very similar to Pluto. Dale Cruikshank looks to NASA’s JWST (James Webb Space Telescope, a 6.5 m diameter visible infrared space telescope) as the proper tool to make this detection. New Horizons LEISA instrument has probably too low a resolution to detect CO2 features around 2 microns.

Jason Cook (SwRI) presented a talk on “Observations of Pluto’s Surface and Atmosphere at Low Resolution.” Intrigued by the ethane (C2H6) detection, he got the new idea to look for it this in old data he took in 2004 using the Gemini-N NIRI instrument, with R~700 (low resolution) spectroscopy. In his analysis, he had to include the C2H6 ice contribution to make a fit of ice abundances to the data. He was able to fit multiple methane bands and derive comparable amounts that agrees with other published methane detections at higher resolution.

Bryan Butler (NRAO) talked about “Observations of Pluto, Charon and other TNOs at long wavelengths.” As you go to longer wavelengths, you are less affected by solar reflection. You become dominated by the thermal emission from the body itself. But the emission at these wavelengths will be weak such that building highly sensitivity instruments is key, such as ALMA (in Chile) or updated VLA, called the EVLA (in New Mexico). They have been using ALMA and EVLA to observe Pluto and Charon in 2010-2012 and they had to remove the background contribution as Pluto had been moving through the galactic plane in this period.

pluto_galactic_plane-1024x775

The path of Pluto is shown with the green line that appears to make loops. This is the path of Pluto projected against the sub-millimeter. The enhanced horizontal signal is strong sub millimeter thermal emission from the plane of the Milky Way. This caused an undesired extra background signal that needed to be removed from data taken in the 2010-2012 time frame.

What’s Next? They wish to use ALMA to study Pluto & Charon and also attempt to detect Nix & Hydra, if they fall on the larger size. ALMA will be used to observe TNOs and will have the capability to resolve the largest TNOs like Eris (size ~2400km diameter). They predict they can make high-SNR images of Pluto, but barely resolve Charon within a short observation time. To get high-SNR images of Charon would take more observatory time than they think would be awarded for a single object:

NHalma_pluto_charon-1024x775

 

Playing Marbles at Pluto. Looking at the Dynamic Dust Environment. Generators, Sweepers, and Sweet-Spots.

Simon Porter (Lowell Observatory) began this part of the session with “Ejecta Transfer within the Pluto System.” He asked, “Where does the short lived dust go?” Having small satellites is not unusual in the solar system. Both Jupiter & Saturn have low number-density rings formed from short-lived dust particles ejected from small satellites.  Their Hypothesis: Dust ejected from the small satellites is swept up by Pluto and Charon. Their Experiment: Simulate dust trajectories in a computer (N-body computation) starting randomly in the system (but constrained within the orbits of the small satellites) and map where they impact Pluto & Charon. Repeat this 10,000 times for a combination of parameters. Their Results: Dust particles do hit all the bodies in the Pluto System. For the Charon impacts, smaller particles survive longer, and those that hit Charon tend to have speeds around 50 m/s (like a fastball pitcher). If a particle were to hit Pluto, it would be happen with speeds in the 50-200 m/s range and occur much quicker (due to the fact that Pluto has a larger gravity mass than Charon). They found that lower speed particles would hit the Pluto’s trailing side, whereas the higher speed particles hit the Pluto’s leading side. They also found a slight northern preference for smaller particles due to radiation pressure. And they made an intriguing observation that the impacts they computed correlate well to bright albedo areas (high reflectivity) on the Pluto surface.

David Kaufman (SwRI) next talked about “Dynamical Simulations of the Debris Disk Dust Environment of the Pluto System.” He was interested in modeling where debris dust would exist in the Pluto System. The motivation was to evaluate the probability of whether New Horizons would encounter a large enough dust particle that could be catastrophic to the spacecraft. He described the dynamics: the Pluto System can be approximated by a “circular restricted three-body (Pluto-Charon-particle) problem,” but it’s far from simply three bodies. There are features such as the Charon Instability Strip, where the moon Charon sweeps away material. The Lagrange points are unstable. And the outer moon can significantly perturb (change) trajectories that cross their orbits. He mentioned that “unusual type orbits” can be sustained by the unique gravity and motion characteristics of the Pluto System. He’s done numerical simulations following the particles, governed by physics principles for the system, over a time period of 500 years, and derived that the debris disk is an expended three-dimensional and stable. The inner debris disk recreated the instability strip.

Silvia Giuliatti Winter (UNESP, Brazil) talked about “The Dynamics of Dust Particles in the Pluto-Charon System.” She is interested in the orbital evolution of small particles ejected form the surface of Nix and Hydra and what happens to them when dust particles from interplanetary meteoroids on these satellites. The goal is to place constraints on predictions for a ring in the Pluto System. They model 1um and 5-10um “dust particles” and track where they travel.

Othon Winter (UNESP Brazil) spoke about “On the Relevance of the Sailboat Island for the New Horizons Mission.” In investigating where particles would find stabile orbits, their modeling predicted a region where there was a cluster of orbits characterized by high eccentricity (e= 0.2 to 0.8) and located around 0.6 Pluto-Charon semi-major axis (i.e. between Pluto and Charon). They nicknamed it “Sailboat Island’ because on a eccentricity vs. distance- from the Pluto plot it looked like a sailboat.

PLuto s-type_orbits

The figure describes a family orbits called S-type that are stable. The plots are in d vs. e. where d, on the x axis is the Pluto-centric semi-major axis (how far from the Pluto barycenter) and e, on the y axis is the eccentricity. The “white” areas are orbit solutions that were found to be stable. Area ‘1’ is the “Sailboat Island” described in the talk. Left are prograde (inclination=0) orbits, right are retrograde (inclination=180 degrees) orbits.

PLuto family_orbits

Example of a particular family of orbits from the “Sailboat Island” parameter space in the full-family of stabile orbits.

Andrew Poppe (UC Berkeley) on “Interplanetary dust influx to the Pluto System: Implications for the Dusty Exosphere and Ring Production.” The three previous talks addressed what happened to particles in the Pluto system with time (i.e., their lifetime, where they impacted objects, what stable orbits they achieved). Here He asked, could the source of the dust come from interplanetary sources? For example, come from the Kuiper Belt being dragged into the Sun.  Because Pluto’s orbit is highly inclined but our Solar Systems Kuiper Belt dust disk is mainly in the ecliptic plane and Pluto periodically passes through the thickness part of the dust disk. EKB = Edgeworth–Kuiper belt

\pluto_dust_cycle-1024x783

Computation of the dust flux (in particles/m^2/s) for Pluto over one Pluto orbit. The peaks are when Pluto crosses the ecliptic (expected). New Horizon’s Jul 2015 Pluto Fly-by (shown by the red dashed line) will be close to an ecliptic crossing. 

Implications for Rings. They turn their “mass influx models” and do calculations on where rings could form. They predict optical depth tau < 10^-7 (in backscatter). They are working to refine their models to include larger grains.  Open questions. We still do not really have a good handle on the amount of dust generated by “the Kuiper Belt residents”. This is an active area of study.

Henry Throop (SwRI at large) talked about putting “Limits on Pluto’s Ring System from the June 12, 2006, Stellar Occultation.” You can search for rings by direct limited (e.g., using HST) or using stellar occultations. Direct imaging is 2D but at coarse scales whereas stellar occultation give 1 D cuts at higher spatial resolution. He saw that although the Jun 12, 2006 occultation event was 61 seconds in duration, about 3 hours of data was taken over the entire event, so he started to look outside the main events in search for rings that would appear as shallower drops in the light curve.

Plutio ex dust_pluto_disk1-1024x781

Three hours of data taken around the Jun 12, 2006 Pluto occultation even. They did not see any rings or debris with this data set.

Looking back at the timing they realized that Nix was just missed by 1000km or so. So had their been a cosmic coincide that this occultation caught Nix, Nix would have been discovered 10 years earlier.  Implications for New Horizons? This null results combined with other searchers for rings (e.g. recent HST observations) put limits on ring detection, but this dataset is the only data set looking for rings at scales < 1500km, the spatial resolution on HST.  The New Horizons spacecraft on its fly-by through the Pluto system in July 2015 should detect a ring with its Student Dust Counter instrument, if such a ring exists.

Monday, July 8, 2013

New Horizons Mission Update 7/8/13

 

 

NHatplutocharon

 

Mission Elapsed Time:
(Beginning 1/19/06 19:00:00 UTC)
2727 (7.47 yrs.)  Days 08 Hours 14 Minutes

Pluto Closest Encounter Operations Begin:
( 4/12/15  00:00:00 UTC)
614 Days (1.68 yrs.)  20 Hours 14 Minutes

Pluto Closest Encounter Begins:
(7/14/15  11:49:59 UTC)
735 Days (2.01 yrs.) 08 Hours 33 Minutes

 

This week the New Horizons mission team is celebrating the 35th anniversary of the discovery of Pluto’s largest and “first” moon, Charon. This discovery was made in 1978 by U.S. Naval Observatory astronomers James Christy and Robert Harrington, working in Flagstaff, Ariz., and Washington, D.C.

 

NH Charon disc photos

Charon discovery images: In mid-1978 U.S. Naval Observatory astronomer James W. Christy noticed something unusual – a bump to the side of Pluto which turned out to be Charon. These discovery images were taken while he was making routine measurements of photographic plates of Pluto taken in June 1978 with the 1.55-meter (61-inch) Kaj Strand Astrometric Reflector at the Observatory’s Flagstaff Station in Arizona.


Charon, whose discovery was first announced on July 7, 1978, orbits about 19,400 kilometers (12,500 miles) from Pluto and has a diameter of about 1,207 kilometers (750 miles) — about the width of Texas. At half the diameter of Pluto, Charon is the largest moon relative to its planet in our solar system.

 

NH keck photo of Pluto and Charon

Note that the colors do not indicate the colors of Pluto and Charon, but the brightness of light (in the same way that contours show height on a topographic map). And because the light from Pluto and Charon is scattered by the Earth's atmosphere above the telescope, the images of Pluto and Charon are also blurred - their actual sizes are much smaller than they appear in this image.

Keck Observatory’s view of Pluto and Charon’s reflective but almost colorless surface is covered by water ice, and may contain traces of ammonia as well. Its interior is much less rocky than Pluto (which is nearly 70-percent rock). By contrast, Charon’s interior exhibits a nearly 50-50 combination of rock and water ice. And unlike Pluto, Charon has no substantial atmosphere.

 

NH Pluto charon chemistry

Until only very recently, images taken by ground-based telescopes always showed Pluto and Charon blurred together since their maximum separation is only 0.9 arcsec as seen from the Earth. Thanks to the excellent quality of its 8.3-meter primary mirror and the stability of the atmosphere above Mauna Kea, Subaru Telescope has been able to provide clearly separated images of the two bodies using its Cooled Infrared Spectrograph / Camera (CISCO). With their light cleanly separated, subsequent infrared spectroscopy using CISCO reveals dramatically different surface compositions for Pluto and Charon.

The historic discovery of Charon ushered in the modern understanding of Pluto as both a double planet and the product of a giant collision that formed the system in much the same way as the Earth-Moon system was formed.  We now know that Charon, once thought to be Pluto’s only moon, orbits Pluto with at least four much smaller moons: Nix, Hydra, Kerberos and Styx, all of which, like Charon, orbit in circular paths and in Pluto’s equatorial plane. From Charon, Pluto looms large in the sky—more than 14 times as wide and 200 times as big of an area as the Earth’s moon appears in our sky. And at “full Pluto,” Charon’s night side is about 50-percent brighter than a full moon in Earth’s nighttime sky.

 

NH Pluto, charon 2 moons

 

New Horizons is on course to fly by and make the first reconnaissance of the Pluto system just two years from now, in July 2015. When it does, the spacecraft will turn these moons and their parent planet Pluto from points of light into well-mapped worlds, chart their compositions in exquisite detail, explore Pluto’s atmosphere, search for other moons and rings, and make many other observations as well.

 

Present Course and Position of New Horizons in 3 Dimensions:

#1

NH #1

 

#2

 

NH#2

#3

NH #3

Sunday, June 16, 2013

New Horizons Mission Update 6/16/13

 

NH spacecraft at Pluto

Mission Elapsed Time:
Beginning 1/19/06  19:00:00 UTC
2705 Days (7.41 yrs.) 06 Hours 11 Minutes

Pluto Closest Encounter
Operations Begins:
4/12/15 00:00:00  UTC
636 Days (1.74 yrs.) 22 Hours 47 Minutes

Pluto Closest Approach:
7/14/15 11:49:59 UTC
757  Days (2.03 yrs.) 10 Hours 36 Minutes

 

New Horizons Team Sticking to Original Flight Plan at Pluto:

Unless significant new hazards are found, expect NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft to stay on its original course past Pluto and its moons, after mission managers concluded that the danger posed by dust and debris in the Pluto system is less than they once feared.

 

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The New Horizons team recently completed an 18-month study of potential impact hazards – mostly dust created by objects hitting Pluto’s small satellites – the spacecraft would face as it speeds some 30,000 miles per hour (more than 48,000 kilometers per hour) past Pluto in July 2015. The team estimated that the probability of a mission-ending dust impact was less than 0.3 percent if the spacecraft followed the current baseline plan, far below some early, more conservative estimates. So, with the concurrence of an independent review panel and NASA, the project team expects to keep New Horizons on this baseline course, which includes a close approach of about 12,500 kilometers (nearly 7,800 miles) from the surface of  Pluto.

 

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“We found that loss of the New Horizons mission by dust impacting the spacecraft is very unlikely, and we expect to follow the nominal, or baseline, mission timeline that we've been refining over the past few years,” says New Horizons Project Scientist Hal Weaver, of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. “Still, we'll be ready with two alternative timelines, in the event that the impact risk turns out to be greater than we think.”

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Safe passage: With the dust-impact hazard less than once feared, the New Horizons team plans to keep its spacecraft on the baseline trajectory through the Pluto system.


Those alternate plans (called SHBOTs, short for Safe Haven by Other Trajectories) are being developed should new information – gathered from New Horizons camera observations during the approach to Pluto, for example, or new dust-dynamics analyses – indicate less-than-smooth sailing for New Horizons.  New Horizons managers recently presented their impact-hazard outlook and if-necessary mitigation plans to an independent NASA review panel and to the NASA Science Mission Directorate Program Management Council  and   received endorsements from both.

New Horizons Course and Position in Three Dimensions:

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New Horizons Principal Investigator Alan Stern, of the Southwest Research Institute, says the mission team is now finalizing plans for the Pluto encounter. In early July, the team will rehearse the most critical nine-day segment of the baseline encounter plan, putting itself and the spacecraft through the paces of the flight toward and just past Pluto and its moons. Stern adds that the spacecraft remains on target for a close approach to Pluto in 2015, all subsystems are performing nominally, and “the anticipated science observations will revolutionize our understanding of dwarf planets and the Kuiper belt, and excite a whole new generation of the public to the first reconnaissance of a planet on the very frontier of our solar system

Sunday, May 19, 2013

New Horizons Mission Update 5/19/13

 

NH science pay load

 

Mission Elapsed  Time:
Beginning 1/19/06 19:00:00 UTC
2677 Days  (7.33 yrs.)  07 Hours 44 Minutes

Pluto Closest Encounter Operations Begin:
4/12/15 00:00:00 UTC
628 Days (1.72 Yrs.)  21 Hours 27 Minutes

Pluto Closest Approach:
7/14/15 11:49:59 UTC
785 Days (2.15 yrs.) 09 Hours 17 Minutes

 

Waking Up New Horizons for Summer 2013:

 

Currently, New Horizons itself is about 2.6 billion miles from the Sun, and only about 600 million miles from Pluto. Arrival at Pluto is just under 700 days away – still a long time, but much less than the nearly 2,700 days New Horizons has been traveling since launch.  New Horizons is healthy and on course, with all systems and science sensors working. On May 21, the team wake the spacecraft from its most recent, 100-plus day hibernation to begin a busy annual checkout, which will include thorough checks of all backup systems, instrument payload calibrations, and an update of the fault protection software with the next-to-last planned set of enhancements before New Horizons starts the Pluto encounter in January 2015 – just over 19 months from now.

New Horizons Present Position in Three Dimensions:

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This summer’s wakeup will also include the most comprehensive on-the-spacecraft close-encounter rehearsal.  For nine days, beginning July 5, New Horizons will execute all the activities of its final week on approach to Pluto, closest approach day, and then some of the post-encounter timeline as well.  After the nine-day rehearsal, New Horizons will be ordered to downlink a large amount of data through NASA’s Deep Space Network to evaluate how the rehearsal went, collect more cruise science data, conduct more spacecraft navigation tracking, and then put New Horizons back into hibernation on August 21 for another 4½ months,  Also this summer, New Horizons will be close enough to resolve Pluto from its large moon Charon using the long-focal length telescopic imager called LORRI. The first week of July is also the 35th anniversary of Charon’s discovery and – entirely by coincidence – the spacecraft will be taking our first images of Charon at the same time of year that the moon was discovered, back in 1978.  There won't be a course correction this summer as in 2011 and 2012. The spacecraft navigation team has determined from tracking data that New Horizons is  on course and that there is no need to expend any fuel over this issue.  The mission team will feel the increased pace of activity as the spacecraft draws closer and closer to 2015, and many members of the team are working much longer hours on this project than they did in early- and mid-cruise phases of the mission. To prepare for encounter operations to start in January 2015, new staff will be added to the science and operations teams. In fact,   one very important addition was added by bringing in a deputy project manager, Peter Bedini, of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.

 

NH alternate flybys #1

The New Horizons team studied numerous alternate flybys, called SHBOTs, before recommending to NASA a pair of backups to protect New Horizons from possible impact hazards in the Pluto system.

All exploration comes with both rewards and risks:

Back in 2005 and 2006, when Pluto’s second and third moons (Nix and Hydra) were discovered, searches by astronomers for still more moons didn’t reveal any. So the accidental discovery of Pluto’s fourth moon by the Hubble Space Telescope in mid-2011 (during a search for Plutonian rings) raised the possibility that the hazards in the Pluto system might be greater than previously anticipated. Those concerns were amplified when Hubble discovered a fifth moon in 2012. As a result of those discoveries, the New Horizons science and operations teams began to more carefully scrutinize the true level of hazards to the spacecraft at closest approach and devise mitigation strategies to make sure the encounter with Pluto would be successful.

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A survey was completed by NASA and an independent group-a NASA approved technical review team, led by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Keyur Patel, and then by senior executives at NASA Headquarters. Both groups have concurred with the team's findings, which can be surmised as follows:

1. New Horizons benefits from its approach trajectory because that trajectory is steeply inclined to Pluto’s satellite plane and associated debris hazards that models show should lie close to the satellite plane. As a result, most of the risk New Horizons faces occurs only at closest approach, when the spacecraft is very near the satellite plane.

 

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The New Horizons trajectory (red line) is steeply inclined to Pluto’s satellite plane, thereby restricting satellite debris hazards – which lie near the satellite plane – to the short time near closest approach.

2. The Pluto system appears to be far safer than early fears and initial calculations indicated when the new moons began popping up. In fact, the best current models predict a 0.3% (1-in-300) chance of a mission-ending impact near closest approach on the nominal trajectory. Much of the reason for this lowered risk assessment is that more sophisticated dust-impact models revealed a decrease (by about a factor of 100) in lethal impact probability for trajectories that fly into the region where New Horizons is aimed now – a region where the gravitational effects of Pluto’s largest moon Charon clears debris. Another important factor is that when the team tested spacecraft components against high-velocity impacts using gun ranges in New Mexico and Ohio, it was discovered that the spacecraft shielding is considerably “harder”– that is, more resistant to impacts – than preflight estimates indicated.

3. The base lined New Horizons closest-approach aim point is one of the safest possible aim points – if not the safest aim point – in the Pluto system. This is because New Horizons is headed to a closest approach in the region that Pluto’s Texas-sized moon Charon efficiently clears of debris. In fact, Charon offers such a good hazard-removal service that even if a recent impact onto a small moon created debris near Charon’s orbit just months before encounter, Charon would clear almost all of it by the time the spacecraft arrives.

But to be still more prudent, the team is also implementing plans during the final weeks of approach in summer 2015 for New Horizons itself to search for hazards that can’t be  seen from Hubble or Earth-based telescopes. Then the team also added “fail safe” data downlinks just two days and one day before the encounter to send home the best images and spectra stored on the spacecraft’s recorders, just in case the current estimates are wrong and  New Horizons is lost at closest approach. It’s always better to plan this way, just as the Apollo astronauts collected contingency samples right after stepping onto the moon in case they had to make a hurried getaway before their moonwalks could be completed.  And – just as every space shuttle mission included (but never used) plans to land after just one orbit of Earth if the spacecraft wasn’t healthy enough to continue – there are two alternate encounter sequences that  can be uploaded to New Horizons as late as 10 days before the closest approach, in the unlikely event that  hazard observations on final approach raise new cautions.

Safe Havens:

These backup encounter sequence plans are called SHBOTs, an acronym for Safe Haven By Other Trajectory.  The first SHBOT is called GIS, for Generic Inner SHBOT. It continues on the nominal trajectory and aim point, but for three hours near closest approach, then  the spacecraft is repointed so its dish antenna can shield it from impacts. This pointing attitude, called Antenna to Ram (or ATR), would cost  some science because the spacecraft won’t be as free to point the science instruments toward Pluto system targets during those three hours. But tests and modeling show this provides a factor of three to four times increase in success probability, and reduces the estimated loss of mission probability to about 1 in 1,000.

 

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If necessary, the high-gain (“dish”) antenna on New Horizons can be used to shield most of the spacecraft from dust particle impacts during the Pluto encounter.

The second SHBOT is called DIS, for Deep Inner SHBOT. DIS also uses the ATR attitude. It also directs the spacecraft toward a much closer encounter with Pluto – just inside 3,000 kilometers from Pluto’s surface, compared to the nominal encounter close approach of about 12,500 kilometers from the surface. Why go closer, not farther, to avoid hazards? Because if the spacecraft  goes close enough, it can benefit from the fortuitous “drag clearing” of debris particles from Pluto’s extended upper atmosphere. DIS has more severe science impacts than does GIS, but there is a strong consensus among the team members that it’s both the best choice if late-breaking news tells them the nominal trajectory is unexpectedly riskier than anticipated, and losing some science to execute Deep Inner SHBOT is far better than losing the mission to a lethal impact.   When  launched it was never imagined that the team would be planning three separate encounters with Pluto, but that is what has happened.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

New Horizons Mission Update 5/9/13

 

New Horizons going through debris fielld

 

Mission Elapsed Time:
(Beginning 1/19/06 19:00:00 UTC)
2667 Days (7.31 yrs.) 06 Hours 14 Minutes

Pluto Closest Encounter Operations Begin:
(4/12/15 00:00:00 UTC)
701 Days (1.92 yrs.) 22 Hours 45 Minutes

Pluto Closest Approach:
(7/14/15 11:49:59 UTC)
795 Days (2.18 yrs.) 10 Hours 34 Minutes

 


New Horizons Current Position and Course in Three Dimensions:

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A new companion for Neptune:

Alex Parker and associates  describes a serendipitous discovery that his collaborators and he made while searching for a distant Kuiper Belt Object for the New Horizons spacecraft to visit after its 2015 Pluto flyby.

 

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So, what kind of serendipitous discovery did they make? They found a Neptune Trojan, now called 2011 HM102.  It is  not just any Neptune Trojan:  It's the largest trailing Trojan known in the entire Solar System, it's the most inclined Neptune Trojan known, and (as of right now) it is the closest known object of any kind to the New Horizons spacecraft

 

Trojans in the Solar System:

 

Trojan asteroids are objects in 1:1 mean-motion resonance with a planet, meaning that they orbit with (nearly) exactly the same period as the planet. There are different semi-stable orbital configurations for objects in 1:1 mean-motion resonance, and Trojans are objects which fall into two of these configurations - namely, they lead or trail the planet in its orbit by (on average) about 60 degrees. Objects leading the planet oscillate around the planet-Sun are called the  L4 Lagrange point, while objects trailing the planet oscillate around the planet-Sun are called the L5 Lagrange point. This kind of orbital oscillation is called "liberation."

 

NH Trojan 2011 comparison

 

The distant ice-giant Neptune has nine known stable Trojans. While at first glance it might seem that since we know of more than 5000 Trojan companions for Jupiter and only nine for Neptune, we can give Jupiter the award for having the most Trojans today.   Neptune is much farther away from us than Jupiter, and it is much harder to detect small objects (like Trojans) at Neptune's distance than it is at Jupiter's. Early estimates correcting for this effect indicate that Neptune's Trojan swarms may have upwards of 10 times as many objects in them as Jupiter's swarms, or equivalently 10 times as many objects as reside in the Main Asteroid Belt.  The trick is finding these distant, slow-moving, and exceedingly faint objects. Which brings us to why were they at the telescope when they found 2011 HM102? Well, we have a spacecraft called New Horizons and it is planned that after its successful run at Pluto it will take a look at some KBOs already picked out ahead of time.  New Horizons is currently flying out to meet Pluto at a breakneck speed of over 13 kilometers per second. In July of 2015, it will fly through the Pluto system, collecting as much data as it can with its onboard instruments, and then beam all that information back to Earth. However, there's no stopping New Horizons at Pluto. The spacecraft will continue outward into the Kuiper Belt at that incredible speed, with enough fuel left onboard for a small course change.  The goal is to find a small Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) for New Horizons to study once it has completed its primary mission to Pluto. Because of its limited remaining fuel supply, it can only make a small course change, meaning that it can only reach a very small slice of the outer Solar System. However, the outer Solar System is filled with billions of small, icy objects, and a few of these may be the perfect candidates they are looking for.

 

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Astronomers conducting surveys for KBOs usually pick fields far away from the Galactic plane to avoid dealing with images filled to the brim with boring old stars. So, unfortunately, that means they have to do a special survey, and they got to deal with the nightmare that is dredging through these star fields for moving objects.  Starting in 2011, they have been turning these telescopes and their giant imaging arrays toward the patch of sky where they expect to find the Kuiper Belt objects that New Horizons can reach.

 

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Once these images have been collected the images are scrutinized for targets. Special techniques are applied  that remove stationary objects (like stars) and reveal moving objects (like Kuiper Belt objects).

 

Discovery of 2011 HM102:

Their survey beam punched right through Neptune's trailing Trojan cloud.   The survey was not designed specifically to find Neptune Trojans – though they were aware that they could find them  During the normal search process, they spotted 2011 HM102 as fast-moving and very bright - it's the brightest object discovered to date by a wide margin.

 

NH discovery of 2011 HM102

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Using the updated orbit, a large number of simulations were run to determine how stable 2011 HM102 was, and found that for at least a billion years, 2011 HM102 happily continues to remain in its resonant configuration with Neptune.  Because 2011 HM102 is quite bright (compared to the other objects they had been finding), they could also measure it's color. This is done by collecting images of the object through various color filters, and comparing how bright it appears in one color filter versus another. This was the first measurement of the color of a trailing Neptune Trojan, and it was demonstrated that it has a very similar color to the leading Neptune Trojans.

 

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They recognized one other interesting aspect about 2011 HM102: it comes fairly close to New Horizons position as it heads for Pluto.   As of right now, it is the closest known object of any kind to New Horizons - about 2.5 AU away. In the later parts of 2013, it will pass within 1.2 AU of New Horizons, where it will be bright enough to be just detectable from New Horizons.

 

NH decides not to photo Trojan 2011